5. Data and Analysis


Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses (Jenkinson,1977 References ) was done for the climatological datasets listed in Table 2.



 
 

Table 2

Details of climatological data sets used in the study

No
Parameter
Region
Period / Duration (years)
Reference
1
Rainfall Annual and Seasonal:JJAS
All - India
1871 - 1994 / 124
Parthasarathy et. al. (1995)
2
,,
Homogeneous India
,,
,,
3
,,
Core monsoon India
,,
Parthasarathy (Private communication)
4
,,
Northwest India
,,
,,
5
,,
West Central India
,,
,,
6
,,
Central Northeast India
,,
,,
7
,,
Northeast India
,,
,,
8
,,
Peninsular India
,,
,,
9
Rainfall : Annual
England and Wales
1766 - 1980 / 215
Wigley and Jones (1982)
10
SOI : Seasonal
Tahiti - Darwin
1852 - 1984 / 133
Wright(1989)
11
Surface Temp.: Annual and Seasonal
Arctic
1957 - 1981 / 25
Kelly and Jones(1981)
12
Surface Temp.: Annual and Seasonal
Antarctic
1957 - 1983 / 27
Rapier(1983)

 
 
 
 
 


The power spectra were plotted as cumulative percentage contribution to total variance versus the normalized standard deviation t given as (Equation 9).

where L is the period in years and T50 the period up to which the cumulative percentage contribution to total variance is equal to 50. The phase spectra were plotted as cumulative(%) normalized (normalized to total rotation) phase .The variance and phase spectra alongwith statistical normal distribution for the data sets (Table 2) are shown in Figures 7 - 9.


FIGURE 7
Variance / phase spectra for (a) Indian region rainfall and (b) England and Wales rainfall.


FIGURE 8
Variance / phase spectra for Southern Oscillation Index


FIGURE 9
Variance / phase spectra for Antarctic and Arctic surface temperatures


    The cumulative percentage contribution to total variance and the cumulative (%) normalized phase (normalized w. r. t. the total rotation) for each dominant waveband is computed for two representative data sets and shown in Figure 10 to illustrate Berry's phase, namely the progressive increase in phase with increase in period and also the close association between phase and variance (see Item d, Section 4.2).


FIGURE 10
Berry’s phase : the progressive increase in phase angle with period length and the one to one correspondence between phase and variance in dominant (normalised variance >= 1) wavebands for All India annual rainfall as a representative example. The ‘goodness of fit’ at 95% level of significance for each waveband was determined by statistical chi-square test.


    Table 3 gives the following results of continuous periodogram analyses for the data sets: (1) The period T50 upto which the cumulative percentage contribution to total variance is equal to 50 . (2) The dominant peak periodicities in wavebands 2 - 3, 3 - 4, 4 - 6, 6 - 12, 12 - 20, 20 - 30, 30 - 50, 50 - 80. These wavebands include the model predicted (Equation 5) dominant peak periodicities 2.2, 3.6, 5.8, 9.5, 15.3, 24.8, 40.1, and 64.9 years for values of n ranging from -1 to 6 .


Table 3

Periodogram estimates


Region
T50
Peak periodicities in dominant (normalised variance > 1.0) wave bands(years)
Duration in years
years
2 -3
3 - 4
4 -6
6 - 12
12 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 50
50 - 80
All India (Annual) 124
3.733 2.075, 2.151, 2.352, 2.460, 2.652, 2.774, 2.887  3.096, 3.210, 3.374, 3.515, 3.688, 3.846  4.573, 4.793, 5.670  6.450, 6.815, 7.517, 10.806  12.886, 16.009  21.653  34.027  65.375
Homogeneous (Annual)

124

3.641 2.028, 2.092, 2.149, 2.347, 2.455, 2.665, 2.774, 2.881, 2.972  3.075, 3.197, 3.327, 3.699, 3.850  4.798, 5.704  6.768, 7.509, 8.492, 10.656  12.669, 16.300  21.893  35.063  68.043 
Core-Monsoon (Annual)

124

3.987 2.090, 2.294, 2.453, 2.673, 2.779, 2.878 2.969  3.071, 3.197, 3.354, 3.501, 3.685, 3.835, 3.987  4.788, 5.054, 5.704  6.754, 7.472 10.646  12.720  21.762  36.677  70.962
North West (Annual)

124

3.453 2.034, 2.086, 2.149, 2.199, 2.349, 2.445, 2.684, 2.776, 2.884, 2.966  3.174, 3.344  4.154, 4.783, 5.692  6.863, 7.472, 8.307  12.381, 16.513 21.653  31.790   
West Central (Annual) 

124

4.298 2.096, 2.147, 2.347, 2.462, 2.652, 2.774, 2.972  3.087, 3.203, 3.324, 3.846  4.582, 4.798, 5.715  6.640, 7.547, 10.678  13.055, 15.850  22.201  35.700  65.180
Central North (Annual)

124

3.722 2.086, 2.160, 2.244, 2.359, 2.472, 2.801  3.102, 3.216, 3.381, 3.515, 3.688, 3.854  4.385, 4.573, 4.783, 5.019, 5.681  6.075, 6.444, 7.524, 11.304  12.707  22.695    57.120 
Northeast (Annual)

124

3.858 2.051, 2.092, 2.287, 2.342, 2.472, 2.689 2.765, 2.904  3.115, 3.284, 3.398, 3.522, 3.663, 3.823  4.500, 4.722, 5.591, 5.960 6.808  12.063, 13.751, 18.600    
64.596 
Peninsular (Annual)

124

3.916 2.059, 2.145, 2.193, 2.460, 2.540, 2.646, 2.776, 2.872, 2.972  3.140, 3.255, 3.411, 3.637, 3.854  4.028, 4.200, 4.764, 5.203, 5.854  7.502 12.233, 15.381, 18.452 
All India 

(Seasonal JJAS)

124

3.384 2.024, 2.103, 2.151, 2.359, 2.462, 2.670, 2.768, 2.878  3.084, 3.200, 3.388, 3.526, 3.688, 3.952  4.217, 4.568, 4.779, 5.014, 5.698  6.057, 6.768, 7.383, 8.874, 10.678  12.580, 16.830  21.395   
65.835 
Homogeneous (Seasonal JJAS) 

124

3.213 2.030, 2.096, 2.149, 2.347, 2.460, 2.673 2.768, 2.872, 2.969  3.071, 3.190, 3.321, 3.505  4.213, 4.788, 5.039, 5.710  6.087, 6.761, 7.390, 8.698, 10.678  12.393, 16.563  21.438   
67.908
Core-Monsoon (Seasonal JJAS) 3.467 2.000, 2.094, 2.149, 2.294, 2.455, 2.571, 2.678, 2.771, 2.963  3.065, 3.190, 3.367, 3.501, 3.972  4.424, 4.783, 5.054, 5.704  6.075, 6.754, 7.353, 10.688  12.443 16.662  21.246   
71.247
North West

(Seasonal JJAS) 

124 

3.405 2.000, 2.036, 2.096, 2.151, 2.199, 2.352, 2.448, 2.550, 2.684, 2.771, 2.872, 2.966  3.068, 3.181, 3.371, 3.512  4.179, 4.783, 5.721  6.111, 6.863, 7.464, 8.458  12.282, 16.464 21.545   
76.642
West-Central (Seasonal JJAS)  3.252 2.026, 2.100, 2.347, 2.411, 2.465, 2.584, 2.665, 2.765, 2.969  3.194, 3.311  4.242, 4.587, 4.788, 5.024, 5.704  6.069, 6.700, 7.280, 8.812, 10.720  12.443 16.729  21.610   
65.441
Central Northeast (Seasonal JJAS

124

4.200 2.000, 2.092, 2.242, 2.307, 2.368, 2.421, 2.475, 2.545, 2.660, 2.807  3.210, 3.401, 3.901  4.226, 4.564, 4.779, 4.999, 5.244, 5.698  6.044, 6.822  12.555, 16.480  22.604   
55.542 

Table 3 (Contd.)


Northeast (Seasonal JJAS) 

124

4.028 2.044, 2.088, 2.287, 2.342, 2.510, 2.673, 2.754, 2.890  3.029, 3.127, 3.268, 3.388, 3.526, 3.666  4.109, 4.487, 4.712, 4.954, 5.978  6.342, 6.829, 9.837, 10.937  12.148, 13.751, 18.032  22.514    69.418 
Peninsular (Seasonal JJAS) 

124

3.442 2.020, 2.139, 2.193, 2.364, 2.462, 2.532, 2.676, 2.771, 2.861,  3.425, 3.558, 3.804 4.217, 4.559, 4.798  6.587, 7.309, 8.467  17.067       
England And Wales (Annual)

215

3.572 2.000, 2.088, 2.122, 2.143, 2.219, 2.294, 2.349, 2.380, 2.445, 2.617, 2.684, 2.763, 2.852, 2.963  3.035, 3.140, 3.271, 3.391, 3.601, 3.770, 3.952  4.221, 4.623, 4.870, 5.140, 5.308, 5.931  6.981, 7.273, 7.585, 8.307, 9.227, 9.817, 11.014  12.835, 13.945, 17.204  21.140, 26.740  49.906
SOI (DJF)

133

4.247 2.040, 2.354, 2.416, 2.485, 2.540, 2.596, 2.774, 2.884  3.174, 3.378, 3.508, 3.785  4.023, 4.230, 4.555, 4.779, 5.779 6.450, 9.385 12.631, 14.256, 16.073, 19.185  25.949 
SOI (MAM)

133

4.255 2.057, 2.122, 2.167, 2.210, 2.296, 2.700, 2.881  3.187, 3.384, 3.565, 3.835 4.238, 4.698, 5.140, 5.382, 5.860  6.548, 9.292, 10.321, 11.270  12.631, 16.202, 19.730  26.079  35.771 
SOI (JJA)

133

4.192 2.069, 2.113, 2.158, 2.347, 2.540, 2.594, 2.765, 2.867  3.265, 3.394, 3.537, 3.839  4.032, 4.217, 4.527, 4.764, 5.100, 5.866 6.266, 7.186, 9.264, 10.571  12.455, 16.251  20.290, 27.253 
SOI (SON)

133

3.995 2.053, 2.109, 2.156, 2.255, 2.359, 2.530 2.697, 2.774, 2.881  3.181, 3.391, 3.515, 3.866  4.032, 4.200, 4.532, 4.798, 5.854  6.304, 9.209, 11.304  13.862  20.971, 26.079 
Arctic (Winter)

25

3.964 2.139, 2.636  3.381  4.097  6.124, 9.604  24.487 
Arctic (Spring)

25

2.893 2.000, 2.623  4.642  6.727  27.582
Arctic (Summer)

25

4.040 2.188, 2.824  3.337  7.494  13.520 
Arctic (Autumn)

25

2.757 2.000, 2.428, 2.771 3.681  5.313  10.352  22.402 
Arctic (Annual)

25

3.778 2.000, 2.342, 2.665  3.558  4.407  6.836, 10.720  24.316 
Antarctic (Winter)

27

3.928 2.197  3.432  4.226  9.135  42,612
Antarctic (Spring)

27

4.779 2.107  3.242  4.464, 5.919  9.181  19.968 
Antarctic (Summer)/ 27 4.994 2.053, 2.328, 2.788  3.242  4.755  31.192
Antarctic (Autumn)/ 27 3.297 2.000, 2.361, 2.724  3.137  4.302  12.282 
Antarctic (Annual)/ 27 5.009 2.000, 2.182  3.324  4.793  8.484  33.120

T50 is the period up to which the cumulative % contribution to total variance is equal to 50.

Dominant peak periodicities significant at or less than 5% level are given in bold letters.
 
 


The following analyses was done to illustrate the two important results: (a) superimposition of dominant peak peridicities contribute to the observed departure from mean for the time series, (b) projection into the future for times of occurrences of dominant peaks helps predict near future trend in departure from mean. Two representative data sets used for the study were taken from All India monsoon (JJAS) rainfall for the 19-years periods 1952-1971 and 1967-1986. Periodogram estimates of number of positive and negative dominant peaks for half-year preceding each year was computed for all the years in the two series and also the projected values for the following two major rainfall deficit years 1972 and 1987 and shown in Figure 11.


FIGURE 11
Association between frequency of occurrence of dominant peak periodicities and observed departures from mean for summer monsoon (JJAS) rainfall over the Indian region.


There is a close association between the observed departures and frequency of occurrence of dominant peaks for the two data sets and the projected values indicate the observed negative departures.