Continuous periodogram power spectral
analyses (Jenkinson,1977 References
) was done for the climatological datasets listed in Table 2.
Table 2
Details of climatological data sets used in the study
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The power spectra were plotted as cumulative percentage contribution to total variance versus the normalized standard deviation t given as (Equation 9).
![]()
where L is the period in years and T50 the period up to which the cumulative percentage contribution to total variance is equal to 50. The phase spectra were plotted as cumulative(%) normalized (normalized to total rotation) phase .The variance and phase spectra alongwith statistical normal distribution for the data sets (Table 2) are shown in Figures 7 - 9.
FIGURE 7
Variance / phase spectra for (a) Indian region rainfall
and (b) England and Wales rainfall.

FIGURE 8
Variance / phase spectra for Southern Oscillation
Index

FIGURE 9
Variance / phase spectra for Antarctic and Arctic
surface temperatures

The cumulative percentage contribution to total variance and the cumulative (%) normalized phase (normalized w. r. t. the total rotation) for each dominant waveband is computed for two representative data sets and shown in Figure 10 to illustrate Berry's phase, namely the progressive increase in phase with increase in period and also the close association between phase and variance (see Item d, Section 4.2).
FIGURE 10
Berry’s phase : the progressive increase
in phase angle with period length and the one to one correspondence between
phase and variance in dominant (normalised variance >= 1) wavebands for
All India annual rainfall as a representative example. The ‘goodness
of fit’ at 95% level of significance for each waveband was determined
by statistical chi-square test.

Table 3 gives the following results of continuous periodogram analyses for the data sets: (1) The period T50 upto which the cumulative percentage contribution to total variance is equal to 50 . (2) The dominant peak periodicities in wavebands 2 - 3, 3 - 4, 4 - 6, 6 - 12, 12 - 20, 20 - 30, 30 - 50, 50 - 80. These wavebands include the model predicted (Equation 5) dominant peak periodicities 2.2, 3.6, 5.8, 9.5, 15.3, 24.8, 40.1, and 64.9 years for values of n ranging from -1 to 6 .
Table 3
Periodogram estimates
| Region |
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| Duration in years |
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3.733 | 2.075, 2.151, 2.352, 2.460, 2.652, 2.774, 2.887 | 3.096, 3.210, 3.374, 3.515, 3.688, 3.846 | 4.573, 4.793, 5.670 | 6.450, 6.815, 7.517, 10.806 | 12.886, 16.009 | 21.653 | 34.027 | 65.375 |
| Homogeneous
(Annual)
124 |
3.641 | 2.028, 2.092, 2.149, 2.347, 2.455, 2.665, 2.774, 2.881, 2.972 | 3.075, 3.197, 3.327, 3.699, 3.850 | 4.798, 5.704 | 6.768, 7.509, 8.492, 10.656 | 12.669, 16.300 | 21.893 | 35.063 | 68.043 |
| Core-Monsoon
(Annual)
124 |
3.987 | 2.090, 2.294, 2.453, 2.673, 2.779, 2.878 2.969 | 3.071, 3.197, 3.354, 3.501, 3.685, 3.835, 3.987 | 4.788, 5.054, 5.704 | 6.754, 7.472 10.646 | 12.720 | 21.762 | 36.677 | 70.962 |
| North
West (Annual)
124 |
3.453 | 2.034, 2.086, 2.149, 2.199, 2.349, 2.445, 2.684, 2.776, 2.884, 2.966 | 3.174, 3.344 | 4.154, 4.783, 5.692 | 6.863, 7.472, 8.307 | 12.381, 16.513 | 21.653 | 31.790 | |
| West
Central (Annual)
124 |
4.298 | 2.096, 2.147, 2.347, 2.462, 2.652, 2.774, 2.972 | 3.087, 3.203, 3.324, 3.846 | 4.582, 4.798, 5.715 | 6.640, 7.547, 10.678 | 13.055, 15.850 | 22.201 | 35.700 | 65.180 |
| Central
North (Annual)
124 |
3.722 | 2.086, 2.160, 2.244, 2.359, 2.472, 2.801 | 3.102, 3.216, 3.381, 3.515, 3.688, 3.854 | 4.385, 4.573, 4.783, 5.019, 5.681 | 6.075, 6.444, 7.524, 11.304 | 12.707 | 22.695 | 57.120 | |
| Northeast
(Annual)
124 |
3.858 | 2.051, 2.092, 2.287, 2.342, 2.472, 2.689 2.765, 2.904 | 3.115, 3.284, 3.398, 3.522, 3.663, 3.823 | 4.500, 4.722, 5.591, 5.960 | 6.808 | 12.063, 13.751, 18.600 |
64.596
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| Peninsular
(Annual)
124 |
3.916 | 2.059, 2.145, 2.193, 2.460, 2.540, 2.646, 2.776, 2.872, 2.972 | 3.140, 3.255, 3.411, 3.637, 3.854 | 4.028, 4.200, 4.764, 5.203, 5.854 | 7.502 | 12.233, 15.381, 18.452 | |||
| All
India
(Seasonal JJAS) 124 |
3.384 | 2.024, 2.103, 2.151, 2.359, 2.462, 2.670, 2.768, 2.878 | 3.084, 3.200, 3.388, 3.526, 3.688, 3.952 | 4.217, 4.568, 4.779, 5.014, 5.698 | 6.057, 6.768, 7.383, 8.874, 10.678 | 12.580, 16.830 | 21.395 |
65.835
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| Homogeneous
(Seasonal JJAS)
124 |
3.213 | 2.030, 2.096, 2.149, 2.347, 2.460, 2.673 2.768, 2.872, 2.969 | 3.071, 3.190, 3.321, 3.505 | 4.213, 4.788, 5.039, 5.710 | 6.087, 6.761, 7.390, 8.698, 10.678 | 12.393, 16.563 | 21.438 |
67.908
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| Core-Monsoon (Seasonal JJAS) | 3.467 | 2.000, 2.094, 2.149, 2.294, 2.455, 2.571, 2.678, 2.771, 2.963 | 3.065, 3.190, 3.367, 3.501, 3.972 | 4.424, 4.783, 5.054, 5.704 | 6.075, 6.754, 7.353, 10.688 | 12.443 16.662 | 21.246 |
71.247
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| North
West
(Seasonal JJAS) 124 |
3.405 | 2.000, 2.036, 2.096, 2.151, 2.199, 2.352, 2.448, 2.550, 2.684, 2.771, 2.872, 2.966 | 3.068, 3.181, 3.371, 3.512 | 4.179, 4.783, 5.721 | 6.111, 6.863, 7.464, 8.458 | 12.282, 16.464 | 21.545 |
76.642
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| West-Central (Seasonal JJAS) | 3.252 | 2.026, 2.100, 2.347, 2.411, 2.465, 2.584, 2.665, 2.765, 2.969 | 3.194, 3.311 | 4.242, 4.587, 4.788, 5.024, 5.704 | 6.069, 6.700, 7.280, 8.812, 10.720 | 12.443 16.729 | 21.610 |
65.441
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| Central
Northeast (Seasonal JJAS
124 |
4.200 | 2.000, 2.092, 2.242, 2.307, 2.368, 2.421, 2.475, 2.545, 2.660, 2.807 | 3.210, 3.401, 3.901 | 4.226, 4.564, 4.779, 4.999, 5.244, 5.698 | 6.044, 6.822 | 12.555, 16.480 | 22.604 |
55.542
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Table 3 (Contd.)
| Northeast
(Seasonal JJAS)
124 |
4.028 | 2.044, 2.088, 2.287, 2.342, 2.510, 2.673, 2.754, 2.890 | 3.029, 3.127, 3.268, 3.388, 3.526, 3.666 | 4.109, 4.487, 4.712, 4.954, 5.978 | 6.342, 6.829, 9.837, 10.937 | 12.148, 13.751, 18.032 | 22.514 | 69.418 | |
| Peninsular
(Seasonal JJAS)
124 |
3.442 | 2.020, 2.139, 2.193, 2.364, 2.462, 2.532, 2.676, 2.771, 2.861, | 3.425, 3.558, 3.804 | 4.217, 4.559, 4.798 | 6.587, 7.309, 8.467 | 17.067 | |||
| England
And Wales (Annual)
215 |
3.572 | 2.000, 2.088, 2.122, 2.143, 2.219, 2.294, 2.349, 2.380, 2.445, 2.617, 2.684, 2.763, 2.852, 2.963 | 3.035, 3.140, 3.271, 3.391, 3.601, 3.770, 3.952 | 4.221, 4.623, 4.870, 5.140, 5.308, 5.931 | 6.981, 7.273, 7.585, 8.307, 9.227, 9.817, 11.014 | 12.835, 13.945, 17.204 | 21.140, 26.740 | 49.906 | |
| SOI
(DJF)
133 |
4.247 | 2.040, 2.354, 2.416, 2.485, 2.540, 2.596, 2.774, 2.884 | 3.174, 3.378, 3.508, 3.785 | 4.023, 4.230, 4.555, 4.779, 5.779 | 6.450, 9.385 | 12.631, 14.256, 16.073, 19.185 | 25.949 | ||
| SOI
(MAM)
133 |
4.255 | 2.057, 2.122, 2.167, 2.210, 2.296, 2.700, 2.881 | 3.187, 3.384, 3.565, 3.835 | 4.238, 4.698, 5.140, 5.382, 5.860 | 6.548, 9.292, 10.321, 11.270 | 12.631, 16.202, 19.730 | 26.079 | 35.771 | |
| SOI
(JJA)
133 |
4.192 | 2.069, 2.113, 2.158, 2.347, 2.540, 2.594, 2.765, 2.867 | 3.265, 3.394, 3.537, 3.839 | 4.032, 4.217, 4.527, 4.764, 5.100, 5.866 | 6.266, 7.186, 9.264, 10.571 | 12.455, 16.251 | 20.290, 27.253 | ||
| SOI
(SON)
133 |
3.995 | 2.053, 2.109, 2.156, 2.255, 2.359, 2.530 2.697, 2.774, 2.881 | 3.181, 3.391, 3.515, 3.866 | 4.032, 4.200, 4.532, 4.798, 5.854 | 6.304, 9.209, 11.304 | 13.862 | 20.971, 26.079 | ||
| Arctic
(Winter)
25 |
3.964 | 2.139, 2.636 | 3.381 | 4.097 | 6.124, 9.604 | 24.487 | |||
| Arctic
(Spring)
25 |
2.893 | 2.000, 2.623 | 4.642 | 6.727 | 27.582 | ||||
| Arctic
(Summer)
25 |
4.040 | 2.188, 2.824 | 3.337 | 7.494 | 13.520 | ||||
| Arctic
(Autumn)
25 |
2.757 | 2.000, 2.428, 2.771 | 3.681 | 5.313 | 10.352 | 22.402 | |||
| Arctic
(Annual)
25 |
3.778 | 2.000, 2.342, 2.665 | 3.558 | 4.407 | 6.836, 10.720 | 24.316 | |||
| Antarctic
(Winter)
27 |
3.928 | 2.197 | 3.432 | 4.226 | 9.135 | 42,612 | |||
| Antarctic
(Spring)
27 |
4.779 | 2.107 | 3.242 | 4.464, 5.919 | 9.181 | 19.968 | |||
| Antarctic (Summer)/ 27 | 4.994 | 2.053, 2.328, 2.788 | 3.242 | 4.755 | 31.192 | ||||
| Antarctic (Autumn)/ 27 | 3.297 | 2.000, 2.361, 2.724 | 3.137 | 4.302 | 12.282 | ||||
| Antarctic (Annual)/ 27 | 5.009 | 2.000, 2.182 | 3.324 | 4.793 | 8.484 | 33.120 |
T50 is the period up to which the cumulative % contribution to total variance is equal to 50.
Dominant peak periodicities significant
at or less than 5% level are given in bold letters.
The following analyses was done to illustrate the two important results: (a) superimposition of dominant peak peridicities contribute to the observed departure from mean for the time series, (b) projection into the future for times of occurrences of dominant peaks helps predict near future trend in departure from mean. Two representative data sets used for the study were taken from All India monsoon (JJAS) rainfall for the 19-years periods 1952-1971 and 1967-1986. Periodogram estimates of number of positive and negative dominant peaks for half-year preceding each year was computed for all the years in the two series and also the projected values for the following two major rainfall deficit years 1972 and 1987 and shown in Figure 11.
FIGURE 11
Association between frequency of occurrence of dominant
peak periodicities and observed departures from mean for summer monsoon
(JJAS) rainfall over the Indian region.

There is a close association between the observed departures and frequency of occurrence of dominant peaks for the two data sets and the projected values indicate the observed negative departures.